Sensitivity for the Baseline

Hi All,

Here are the new numbers for the sensitivity of the baseline
experimental setup. I'm also attaching ps files showing the sensitivity
as a function of delta m^2 and sin^2 2 theta_13. Sensitivities are shown
at the 90% CL.

1) Assuming 0.6% relative normalization error (i.e. no sensitivity gain
from movable detectors). This is the official baseline scenario. The
corresponding ps file is sense_0.6.ps.

                                    Delta m^2 (eV^2)
                            0.0015 0.0020 0.0025 0.0030
---------------------------------------------------------------
Counting Only 0.0175 0.0124 0.0106 0.0104
Shape Only 0.0155 0.0133 0.0124 0.0098
Counting+Shape 0.0112 0.0087 0.0078 0.0070

2) Assuming cross calibration with movable detectors for 8% of the run
(0.26% relative normalization error). The corresponding ps file is
sense_md.ps.

                                    Delta m^2 (eV^2)
                             0.0015 0.0020 0.0025 0.0030
---------------------------------------------------------------
Counting Only 0.0113 0.0080 0.0069 0.0068
Shape Only 0.0158 0.0136 0.0126 0.0101
Counting+Shape 0.0086 0.0064 0.0056 0.0053

A few comments... The shape analyses still make optimistic assumptions
about our knowledge of the background spectra shapes. This does not
affect the Counting analysis. Therefore we should use the sensitivity
of the Counting analysis as the upper limit of sensitivity and the
Counting+Shape analysis as the lower limit on sensitivity. We know that
we can do better than the counting analysis but the Counting+Shape
sensitivity is perhaps too optimistic.

Enjoy,
Jon